Advertisement Senator Raphael Warnock , whose victory in a 2021 runoff helped Democrats gain control of the Senate and made him the first Black senator from Georgia, is being challenged by Herschel Walker , a former football star and Trump-backed Republican. *Incumbent Our best estimate is that the race is a tossup This is our best estimate for the outcome of this race, based on the places that have reported votes so far.
Jump to the forecast State officials in Georgia expect that results will be reported faster than in 2020, when 77 percent of votes were reported by midnight Eastern and 95 percent were reported by noon on Wednesday.
There’s a possibility that the high-profile Senate race won’t be decided until a Dec. 6 runoff election, which will be triggered if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote.
Learn more about the timing of results › These maps show the leading candidates’ margins in the reported vote and estimates for which candidate leads in the remaining votes that we expect from each county. leader Circle size is proportional to the amount each county’s leading candidate is ahead. leader Circle size is proportional to the amount each county’s leading candidate is ahead.
This is our current best estimate for the outcome of this race.
We look at the votes that have been reported so far and adjust our estimate based on what we expect from the votes that remain.
See the full forecast › Our best estimate is that the race is a tossup The lines below show how the reported margin (dashed line) compares with our estimated final margin (solid line surrounded by an estimate of uncertainty.) As a rule, when our estimated margin is steady in the presence of new vote data, our forecast is more trustworthy.
The map below shows how votes cast in this race compare with votes cast in the 2020 presidential election in the same area.
Only counties that have reported almost all of their votes are shown.
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Your guide to the midterm results, from Times reporters The Times’s election forecast is now running.
We use early returns and polling data to estimate in real time the outcome of the elections for Senate and House control.
Here’s how it works › , Nate Cohn New Pennsylvania is home to a close Senate race between Lt.
Gov.
John Fetterman, a Democrat, and Dr.
Mehmet Oz, a Republican.
Michiganders are voting on abortion rights.
And Kansas’ Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is in a tight re-election race, as is Gov.
Janet Mills of Maine. , Maggie Astor 16m ago Republicans are favored to win the open Senate races in North Carolina and Ohio, but if Democrats have a better-than-expected day, these are two places we might see evidence of it.
We’ll also be watching competitive House races in N.C.-13 and Ohio-9. , Maggie Astor 44m ago Gov.
Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County , which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago , is yet another sign of growing Republican strength among Hispanic voters. , Nate Cohn 53m ago The Georgia Senate race, which could go to a Dec. 6 runoff, could determine which party controls the chamber.
In Virginia, the performances of Democratic incumbents in the 2nd and 7th districts may offer early indications of how the party will fare in House races overall. , Maggie Astor 1h ago Republicans must win just 19 competitive seats to retake majority control from the Democrats.
To retain control of the House, Democrats must win 46 of these seats (after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily). , Alicia Parlapiano 1h ago In Kentucky, voters will decide whether to approve a constitutional amendment that would effectively ensure the implementation of a near-total abortion ban.
In Indiana, a House race in the 1st district leans Democratic, but, if the seat were to flip, it could be an early sign of a red wave. , Maggie Astor 2h ago If Democrats hold onto two seats leaning their way, they will need to win three additional tossup seats to maintain control of the Senate.
Republicans would need just two tossup seats beyond what they are favored to win. , Lazaro Gamio 2h ago Six of the eight most competitive Senate races are in states that did not call a winner in the presidential race until after election night: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
What we expect this year › , Alicia Parlapiano 8h ago Because of the order in which different types of ballots are counted, early returns can be misleading.
In 2020, Virginia’s early vote for president favored Republicans, while Pennsylvania’s skewed toward Democrats.
These “mirages” show that vote margins early in the night can change significantly. , Lazaro Gamio 8h ago Results will begin coming in at 6 p.m.
Eastern as the first polls close in Indiana and Kentucky, but the pace will really pick up with a slew of closings at 7 and 8.
By 9 p.m., the polls will have closed in a majority of states. , Maggie Astor 8h ago Source: Election results are from The Associated Press.
The Times estimates the share of votes reported and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers.
These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials.
The Associated Press also provides estimates for the share of votes reported, which are shown for races for which The Times does not publish its own estimates.
The Times’s election results pages are produced by Michael Andre, Aliza Aufrichtig, Kristen Bayrakdarian, Neil Berg, Matthew Bloch, Véronique Brossier, Irineo Cabreros, Sean Catangui, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Avery Dews, Asmaa Elkeurti, Tiffany Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Lazaro Gamio, Martín González Gómez, Will Houp, Jon Huang, Samuel Jacoby, Jason Kao, Josh Katz, Aaron Krolik, Jasmine C.
Lee, Vivian Li, Rebecca Lieberman, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Jaymin Patel, Marcus Payadue, Matt Ruby, Rachel Shorey, Charlie Smart, Umi Syam, Jaime Tanner, James Thomas, Urvashi Uberoy, Ege Uz, Isaac White and Christine Zhang.
Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C.
Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J.
Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J.
David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman; production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White; editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P.
Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman.