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m.hulme@uea.ac.uk; fax: +44 1603 593901 13
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ADaptation And Mitigation Strategies
1 supporting European climate policy 2
Proposal Acronym: ADAM
Sub-Priority 1.1.6.3
Global change and ecosystems
Sub-priority research area I.3
Mitigation and adaptation strategies
Sub-priority research topic I.3.1
Adaptation and mitigation strategies
Type of instrument
Integrated project
3rd Call
17 June 2004 10
Co-ordinator name
Professor Mike Hulme
Co-ordinator organisation name
University of East Anglia
Co-ordinator email and fax
m.hulme@uea.ac.uk; fax: +44 1603 593901 13
Abstract
17 The core objectives of the research proposed by the ADAM (ADaptation And Mitigation) 18
Consortium are
20 • To assess the extent to which existing and evolving EU mitigation and adaptation 21 policies can achieve a tolerable transition (a'soft landing') to a world with a global 22 climate no warmer than 2degC above pre-industrial levels, and to identify the costs and 23 effectiveness of these policies [mention 5degC somewhere?]; 24 • To define a portfolio of strategic options for EU mitigation and adaptation policy 25 development in selected areas such as science and technology, energy, transport, 26 agriculture, infrastructures, trade, development assistance, natural resources 27 management and environmental protection that can address any shortfalls; and 28 • To develop a novel policy options appraisal framework and apply it to existing and 29 evolving policies and to new, long-term strategic policy options, so as to inform 30 European and international climate protection strategy in the context of post-2012 31 Kyoto negotiations. 32
33 A mature climate strategy for Europe will integrate mitigation and adaptation policies and 34 embed (mainstream) them within other non-climate policy realms.
The ADAM project will 35 lead to a better understanding of the complementarities, trade-offs and distinctions that exist 36 between adaptation and mitigation policies and policy options, in the EU and internationally. 37 ADAM will support EU policy development in the next stage of the development of the UN 38 FCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, in particular negotiations around a post-2012 global climate 39 policy regime, and will inform the emergence of new adaptation strategies for Europe.
In 40 research on adaptation policy options, special attention will be paid to the role of extreme 41 events as both exposing vulnerability and as a signal for change.
The top-level impact of the 42 ADAM project will be improving the quality and relevance of scientific contributions to the 43 development and evaluation of climate change policy options within the European 44 Commission.
This will help the Commission to deliver on its current medium-term climate 45 policy objectives and help inform its development of a longer-term climate strategy. 46
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B The Case for Support
51 B.1 Relevance to the Objectives of the Sub-Priority 52
53 Climate change presents a new set of challenges for the development of public policy. This is 54 because the time-scales involved between policy implementation and desired outcome are 55 much longer than in other policy areas; because many areas of policy planning need 56 simultaneously to be addressed, therefore placing a greater demand on the integration of 57 policy across different realms; and because the truly global nature of the problem requires 58 national or regional policies to be designed within some framework of global strategy. These 59 challenges are true for all nations, yet are particularly acute for the European Union (EU) 60 given its leading role to date in the design of humanity's response to our unprecedented 61 perturbation of the global climate. 62
63 Appropriate European climate change policies therefore need simultaneously to secure long- 64 term climate protection goals, to be integrated across multiple-sectors, and to be designed to 65 resonate with emerging international agreements and geo-political discourses.
They must also 66 be acceptable to Europe's citizens.
These are challenging objectives which the EU is 67 nevertheless determined to meet.
In order to do so, however, it will need to harness available 68 scientific expertise to identify, illuminate and appraise the available policy options.
These 69 options must address the demands a de-stabilised climate will place on protecting citizens and 70 valued ecosystems , adaptation , as well as addressing the necessity to stabilise humankind's 71 perturbation to global climate at a minimum desirable level whilst safeguarding and 72 transforming economic activities , mitigation.
The appraisal of these options must recognise 73 the existence of multiple criteria, such as cost-benefit, cost effectiveness, equity, legitimacy 74 and environmental integrity.
Such an appraisal must also identify where policy options can 75 contribute to both objectives , adaptation and mitigation - and where policy trade-offs may 76 emerge. 77
78 The core objectives of the research proposed by the ADAM (ADaptation And Mitigation) 79
Consortium are therefore
81 • To assess the extent to which existing and evolving EU mitigation and adaptation 82 policies can achieve a tolerable transition (a'soft landing') to a world with a global 83 climate no warmer than 2degC above pre-industrial levels, and to identify the costs and 84 effectiveness of these policies [mention 5degC somewhere?]; 85 • To define a portfolio of strategic options for EU mitigation and adaptation policy 86 development in selected areas such as science and technology, energy, transport, 87 agriculture, infrastructures, trade, development assistance, natural resources 88 management and environmental protection that can address any shortfalls; and 89 • To develop a novel policy options appraisal framework and apply it to existing and 90 evolving policies and to new, long-term strategic policy options, so as to inform 91 European and international climate protection strategy in the context of post-2012 92 Kyoto negotiations. 93
94 The ADAM project will therefore lead to a better understanding of the complementarities, 95 trade-offs and distinctions that exist between adaptation and mitigation policies and policy 96 options, in the EU and internationally. A mature climate strategy will integrate mitigation and 97
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3 adaptation policies and embed (mainstream) them within other non-climate policy realms. In 98 particular, the project will support EU policy development in the next stage of the 99 development of the UN FCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, in particular negotiations around a 100 post-2012 global climate policy regime, and will inform the emergence of new adaptation 101 strategies for Europe. In research on adaptation policy options, special attention will be paid 102 to the role of extreme events as both exposing vulnerability and as a signal for change. 103
104 In terms of policy development, the principal time horizon of the project will be from the 105 present to 2025, while the time horizon for policy appraisal will be out to 2100. The dominant 106 unit of analysis for the project will be the EU and its current member states, but will 107 specifically include global analyses where this clearly affects the interests of EU citizens and 108 states (for example, international emissions trading; development assistance, etc.). The 109 ADAM Consortium will work with a small number of 3rd Country collaborating partners (in 110 India, China and the USA) to ensure that our research is grounded in a global perspective. 111
The deliverables from this three-year ADAM project will be
114 • D1: Improvements in economic modelling tools for use in analysing the effects and 115 costs of mitigation and adaptation options (including areas of technology dynamics, 116 innovation, spillovers, economic externalities, and emissions trading within Europe). 117 • D2: blah, blah.
Ottmar et al. to complete from cluster M2. 118 • D3: A quantitative assessment, including a digital atlas, of vulnerability to [average??? 119 temperature] climate change in Europe, and proposed options for reducing this 120 vulnerability; 121 • D4: A quantitative assessment of Europe's economic vulnerability to extreme weather 122 events, and proposed options for reducing this vulnerability by decreasing and sharing 123 disaster losses. 124 • D5: A novel policy options appraisal framework which uses both formal modelling and 125 deliberative processes to illuminate policy options according to multiple criteria. 126 • D6: An appraisal of EU's current climate policy trajectory and the feasibility and cost 127 effectiveness of this trajectory in meeting emerging adaptation objectives and existing 128 mitigation goals. 129 • D7: An appraisal of a range of new (i.e., beyond business-as-usual) mitigation and 130 adaptation policy options as applied to four worked examples spanning a range of 131 scales and sectors, including post-2012 global climate regimes. 132
133 Meeting and delivering the research objectives stated above requires a major European 134 research effort such as can only be funded under an EU FP6 Integrated Project.
All individual 135 member states in the EU recognise the dimensions of the challenges outlined above, and some 136 member states have research institutions which can tackle individual components of the 137 problem or can provide research underpinning of national climate policy planning.
No 138 member state, however, even less any single institution, is capable of providing the integrated 139 research support that is needed at the level of European climate policy planning.
Given the 140 breadth of disciplinary skills that are needed , e.g. economics, policy, climate science, 141 environmental science , together with the range of research tools that need to be deployed , 142 e.g. modelling, policy analysis, integrated assessment , a large-scale Integrated Project is the 143 most appropriate and effective research instrument in Europe that can deliver the stated 144 objectives.
The ADAM Consortium brings together many of Europe's leading national 145 research capacities which have not only been working at the climate science-policy interface 146 for many years, but all of whom share the same intellectual outlook of disciplinary integration 147
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4 and policy relevance which such a project needs. The ADAM project will be able to exploit 148 many years of national and European research investment in climate change and build on these 149 institutional capacities to deliver a truly innovative and unique series of processes and 150 products in support of EU climate policy. 151
153 B.2 Potential Impact 154
Strategic impact
156 The top-level impact of the ADAM project will be improving the quality and relevance of 157 scientific contributions to the development and evaluation of climate change policy options 158 within the European Commission. This will help the Commission to deliver on its current 159 medium-term climate policy objectives and help inform its development of a longer-term 160 climate strategy in the context of (a) the UN FCCC and the post-2012 negotiations; and (b) 161 existing and emerging sectoral policy objectives within the EU. 162
163 The EU has a stated climate policy objective of stabilising global climate at no more than 2°C 164 above pre-industrial levels. This is equivalent to a further warming of no more than about 165 1.3°C above today's temperature. Achieving this objective will probably require CO2 166 concentration to rise no higher than ~450ppmv. Reaching this goal will require contributions 167 from all the world's industrialised and industrialising nations and will not be easily achieved. 168 Even under such a stabilised climate, Europe and the wider world will experience changes in 169 the frequency, distribution and severity of climate risks, some of which will cause 170 considerable loss of life, economic disruption and ecosystem damage. Under this scenario, 171 mitigation will present the major challenge, but serious attention to adaptation options will 172 also be needed. 173
174 A different scenario may see global temperature reach 5°C above pre-industrial levels by 175 2100, with a sea-level rise commitment of 1m or more in the next century. The risks 176 associated with extreme weather events in this scenario would be significantly greater than in 177 a 2°C warmer world and the danger of exceeding irreversible critical thresholds (e.g. melting 178 the Greenland ice sheet) will also be commensurately larger. Under this scenario, whilst 179 successful mitigation efforts may be restricted to a small number of nations, and perhaps only 180 be pursued half-heartedly elsewhere, the challenge for our societies to adapt to such large 181 changes in climate will be immense. 182
183 The world may well develop in a way that falls between these two futures, yet it is clear that 184 we will only safely navigate this coming century of climate change by paying serious attention 185 to combinations of policy options that both mitigate climate change and adapt society so as to 186 be better protected against the residual climate risks.
It seems likely that many of these policy 187 challenges will take us well beyond those options currently in place or under negotiation.
For 188 example, EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions in 2002 were only 2.9% below 1990 levels, 189 compared to the Kyoto target of 8% by 2008-2012.
Indeed, to adequately address both the 190 mitigation and adaptation challenge is likely to require innovative technologies, new forms of 191 solidarity and loss sharing, entirely novel forms of policy intervention, and perhaps quite 192 radical transformations of our societies.
The necessary transition from our current 193 development trajectories to those required for climate protection are not immediately obvious, 194 nor is it clear what combinations of changes in technology, behaviour, institutions and policy 195 would deliver them.
Within Europe, this transition should be achieved without compromising 196
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5 the objectives of the Gothenburg Declaration on sustainable development and the Lisbon 197 Strategy for European as an innovation-driven, knowledge-based economy. 198
199 The ADAM project, using the above diagnosis as a framing of the problem, will evaluate 200 Europe's current predicament and develop portfolios of strategic climate policy options in 201 selected domains which will contribute to the achievement of long-term climate goals for 202 Europe and for the world. These portfolios will be subjected to a novel options appraisal 203 framework, paying especial attention to European competitiveness, cost effectiveness and 204 social justice. Such an appraisal framework will help inform the development of a sustainable 205 climate protection strategy for Europe, in the context of an evolving international climate 206 policy regime. 207
Innovation, exploitation, dissemination
209 The ADAM project will develop an innovative policy options appraisal framework (PAF) and 210 apply it to a number of strategic climate policy domains. We will also advance the current 211 generation of economic modelling tools that are used to evaluate climate policy options and 212 complete a quantitative vulnerability assessment for Europe. These tools, within the context 213 of the PAF, will allow for comparative analysis of mitigation and adaptation options, and an 214 examination of their interaction. Through our worked examples we will develop and appraise 215 a set of novel policy portfolios as applied to the challenges of climate change in Europe. 216
217 Our work will be informed by a cycle of six-monthly climate science-policy EU workshops 218 and we will hold a major final ADAM Conference in Brussels in the winter of 2008/09. The 219 six-monthly workshops will facilitate the dialogue between Europe's climate policy 220 community and the ADAM Consortium which will shape and guide our work, and allow our 221 work to inform and support the EU negotiating process on climate change. Our work will be 222 reported to the international Framework Convention process through successive COP/MOP 223 events and to the wider scientific and policy communities through conventional science and 224 policy journals. Through our 3rd Country collaborators, the relevance and applicability of the 225 ADAM policy options appraisal framework in other world regions will be tested. 226
Contribution to policy and regulation
228 [Anything more to add here?] The ADAM project will view DG Environment as its key client, 229 but will maintain close interaction with its sponsor, DG Research, and with other appropriate 230 DGs (e.g. Energy, Transport, Agriculture) and with the European Environment Agency. The 231 four worked examples will be agreed and then developed in conjunction with significant 232 European policy advisors, for example the Climate Change Unit in DG Environment 233 responsible for negotiating post-2012 global climate regimes. 234
Added value of European approach
236 The development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for managing climate change is an 237 area where the value of co-operative European research is self-evident. The EU plays a 238 crucial function within the international climate negotiations and EU negotiating positions 239 need to be informed by the best possible analysis from European researchers. At the same 240 time, many of the challenges of adaptation (e.g. new insurance regulations) and mitigation 241 (e.g. emissions trading) policy have to be set at an EU scale. Here, again, a research capacity 242 such as that offered by the ADAM Consortium will be crucial in drawing national expertise 243 and experiences of tackling these issues into a series of more coherent and co-ordinated 244 strategies which can be implemented across Europe. 245
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Relation to other research initiatives
247 [Anything else to say here?] The ADAM partners have led, or been significantly involved in, 248 many on-going or recently completed EU-funded research projects relevant to ADAM's 249 objectives; for example, EFIEA-2, ATEAM, CCASH, DINAS Coast, MICE, PRUDENCE, 250 MATISSE, Sustainability A-TEST and NEWATER [add others please].
We are therefore 251 well-placed to exploit and harness this knowledge base for the purposes of ADAM.
Where we 252 do not have direct formal involvement in relevant European, scale projects, our national and 253 European networks allow us to gain access to such work.
For example, the newly started 254 ENSEMBLES Integrated Project will be one such important companion activity, as will 255 Carbo-Europe [other please also?].
Several of the senior staff [name them?
Klein, Adger, 256 Berkhout, Barker, etc.] in the ADAM Partners contributing to the project are Convening or 257 Lead Authors for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report, ensuring that our work is fully cognisant of 258 new insights arising from the IPCC. 259
261 B.3 Scientific and Technical Excellence 262
Research strategy
265 The ADAM work programme is structured around four primary work Domains as shown in 266 the accompanying diagram: Scenarios, Mitigation, Adaptation and Policy Appraisal. 267
268 The Policy Appraisal Domain will provide the central component of ADAM, namely the 269 development of an innovative Policy-options Appraisal Framework (PAF). The PAF will be 270 both a major deliverable of the project and also the key mechanism for providing policy- 271 relevant outputs from the project. The PAF will be used within ADAM in two major 272 exercises: (i) to appraise a broad range of existing and evolving EU policy measures with 273 respect to stated mitigation and adaptation targets; and (ii) to appraise portfolios of novel 274 policy options as might be applied to four selected domains with global, regional or sectoral 275 reach. Deliberative appraisal will use both quantitative economic and environmental 276 modelling and qualitative analysis produced by the other work clusters within the ADAM 277 project. 278
279 The Scenarios Domain will lay out the four framing scenarios that will guide and contextualise 280 the ADAM analysis. These scenarios will be global in scope, but with more detail for Europe, 281 and will encompass development pathways, policy regimes and associated climate futures and 282 environmental impacts. In simple terms, the four scenarios will span a range of climate 283 futures from 2°C global warming, in which the primary challenge will be to mitigate, to a 5°C 284 warming in which the primary challenge will be to adapt. 285
286 The Adaptation Domain will develop a quantitative knowledge base on Europe's vulnerability 287 to climate change, providing the EU and other stakeholders with the rationale for a concerted 288 focus on adaptation and mitigation.
It will also study the interactions between climate change 289 (especially changing extreme weather events), non-climatic developments and sectoral 290 policies, and thus provide insights into the complex societal processes that define vulnerability 291 to climate change.
By modelling the process of adaptation within selected sectors in Europe, 292 social, technical and environmental factors that influence adaptive capacity will be identified. 293 This Domain will also define policy options to reduce Europe's vulnerability to climate 294 change by analysing the way in which current developments and policies influence potential 295 climate change impacts and the capacity to adapt to these impacts. 296
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299 [We do not say much about the uncertainty analysis and methods for IA. Does this matter?] 300
301 The Mitigation Domain will evaluate the costs and effectiveness of different mitigation 302 options at the EU level and estimate their corresponding contribution at the global level in the 303 illustrative ADAM scenarios.
This Domain will also conduct, at the EU level, an evaluation 304 of mitigation efforts in specific sectors.
These global and sectoral evaluations will take into 305 account the main channels of interaction between the EU and other world regions, namely: 306 technology transfer, foreign direct investment, trade of used products and investment goods, 307 development aid and international trade (i.e., physical and financial capital flows).
These are 308 all areas where the EU can play an important role.
Special attention will also be paid to the 309 role of technology spillovers and technological change and innovation, including an 310 assessment of the impact of emissions trading and other policy instruments. 311
312 The ADAM project will interact closely with EU institutions, in particular DG Environment, 313 and will include a major consultation exercise with European policy-makers comprising a 314 formal review of the policy mapping and appraisal at the end of Phase One of the project. The 315 interaction with policy-makers will be maintained throughout the project duration using a 316 cycle of six-monthly ADAM science-policy workshops, building on the recent success of the 317 two EFIEA-2 climate science-policy workshops organised by RIVM and the Tyndall Centre in 318 August and November 2004. 319
Work Domain S: Scenario Analysis
322 [Do we need a deliverable here? Is the scenarios work sufficiently picked up elsewhere?] 323 The Scenarios Domain will lay out the four framing scenarios that will guide and contextualise 324 the ADAM analysis. These scenarios will be global in scope, but with more detail for Europe, 325 and will encompass development pathways, policy regimes, land use change, and associated 326
Scenarios (S)
Development pathways Policy regimes Emissions Climate Environmental impacts
Adaptation (A)
Uncertainty analysis
Methods for integrated
assessment
Policy Appraisal
- develop novel policy options appraisal framework (P1) - appraise existing and evolving EU policies (P2) - appraise new global and EU policy options in four selected domains, including post-2012 (P3)
Mitigation (M)
- enhancement of existing economic models - new technical and organisational options - global effectiveness of existing and new EU policies - sectoral effectiveness of existing and new EU policies
Examine adaptation both to
slow-onset impacts and rapid-
onset extreme events
- vulnerability - adaptive capacity, social, economic, technical and institutional - novel policy options
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8 climate futures and environmental impacts. The scenarios help to ensure integration and 327 synthesis within ADAM by providing a common context of self-consistent scenarios that 328 provide qualitative and quantitative information on a range of plausible development 329 pathways, mitigative and adaptive capacity, climate change and impacts of climate consistent 330 with multi-gas scenarios and stabilisation levels at a range of atmospheric greenhouse gas 331 concentrations. 332
333 The set of four main scenarios will span a range of climate futures from 2°C global warming 334 by 2100, consistent with the EUs stated climate policy objective, in which the primary 335 challenge will be to mitigate, to a warming scenario in a rather unconstrained carbon world in 336 which the primary challenge will be to adapt. Intermediate scenarios will represent future 337 global policy regimes in which there is'early'or'late'consensus over the scale of mitigation 338 that is needed; and that explore the consequences of various combinations of adaptation and 339 mitigation action. The exact stabilisation levels of these two scenarios will be determined 340 within the project, but probably will aim for stabilisation at 2.5° and 3°C. 341
342 Clearly, over the past few years important scenario work has been performed, including IPCC 343 SRES, UNEP's Global Environment Outlook and the work of IPCC post-SRES stabilisation 344 scenarios.
Most of this work did not consider the full suite of radiatively active gases, and did 345 not consider impacts and adaptation.
The ADAM work will aim to close these gaps, including 346 checking the internal consistency of the economic scenarios allowing for Purchasing Power 347 Parity exchange rates, but above all by providing a synthesis of existing work, including new 348 results from other EU projects such as PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES.
In integrated 349 scenarios as described above, uncertainties accumulate across the chain from drivers to final 350 impacts, as a result of which a wide range of impacts are possible at the local scale that are 351 consistent with a certain specification of greenhouse gas emissions.
Identifying and 352 communication these uncertainties will therefore be an important aspect of the work. 353
354 We re-emphasise that the purpose of this scenarios work in ADAM is to develop the consistent 355 information that is needed for the integrated study of adaptation (Work Domain A) and 356 mitigation (Work Domain M) as means to developing and appraising portfolios of climate 357 policy options for long-term climate change management. 358
Work Domain M: Mitigation
362 Work Cluster M1: Mitigation at the EU level , options, costs, and impacts 363 This work cluster will evaluate the cost and impacts of the four ADAM scenarios (Work 364 Domain S), particularly of the "mitigation challenge" scenario, portraying the EU target of 365 global temperature change of 2oC.
This analysis will illustrate, to the extent possible, potential 366 synergies and trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation options using a new 367 methodological framework [what is this framework?
How does it relate to the PAF in P1?] for 368 the joint assessment of adaptation and mitigation.
The "adaptation challenge" scenario (5oC), 369 which portrays high investments in adaptation and associated costs, could play the 370 methodological role of a reference ("business as usual") scenario for the mitigation analysis. 371 In examining complementary sets of mitigation and adaptation strategies, the role of 372 uncertainty in key assumptions and parameters of the coupled social-economic-technical- 373 natural system, most notably long-term responses to oil price shocks and the climate 374 sensitivity (but also the long term effects of changing energy and emission prices on 375 innovations), will be incorporated. 376
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377 Regarding the mitigation options in the EU, traditional technical options (in the field of energy 378 use and conversion as reported in the IPCC TAR) will be complemented by new knowledge 379 and additional empirical research on material efficiency and substitution, on recycling and 380 intensification of the use of products, vehicles and investment goods by pooling; they will also 381 include all non-energy related emissions and related mitigation.
As the technical options for 382 adaptation (protective measures against heavy storms, heat waves, floods, avoidance of 383 stranded investments, use of two harvests per year, etc.) have not yet been systematically 384 analysed, working with cluster A2, a major effort will be the identification, quantification and 385 economic assessment of those adaptation options.
This will include their cost reduction 386 potentials and their synergies with mitigation options. 387
388 Finally, the impacts of mitigation and adaptation on the economy (economic development, 389 employment, competitiveness, and foreign trade) at the EU level and in selected member states 390 will be analysed in detail for the next three decades and with less detail for the decades 391 thereafter.
The technical and organisational options will also be discussed with regard to 392 obstacles, market imperfections, drivers, and interests of parties involved or affected in their 393 pathways from research and development to market introduction and diffusion.
This 394 information will be used as basis for the policy design and appraisal in Work Domain P. 395 How mitigation and adaptation policies could affect the competitiveness of the EU in the 396 global context will be analysed, allowing for changes in market exchange rates.
Attention will 397 also be paid to the role of technology spillovers and technological change and innovation and, 398 in particular, to assess the impact of emissions trading and other policy instruments on them. 399 Particular emphasis is put on impact assessment of policies of the European Commission (to 400 be specified in Work Domain P), specifically in the implementation of its sustainable- 401 development strategy (Gothenburg process) and in view of the potential role of the EU in post- 402 Kyoto climate negotiations and other associated policy proposals. 403
404 The models to be used in the analysis will be process-oriented models of a simulation or 405 optimisation type (e.g. MARKAL, IKARUS, POLES, SERVE, RESIDENT), I/O-models (e.g. 406 ISIS), and macro-economic models of equilibrium or non-equilibrium type (e.g. E3MG). 407 Most of these models have to be enhanced by including adaptation or specific sub-models to 408 be developed within this work cluster. Some of the results will have to be used in the 409 economic models of work cluster M2. 410
411 Deliverable D1: Improvements in economic modelling tools for use in analysing the 412 effects and costs of mitigation and adaptation options (including areas of technology 413 dynamics, innovation, spillovers, economic externalities, and emissions trading within 414 Europe). 415
Work Cluster M2: Mitigation - the global context
417 [Text still too long. Mention of models to be used here , MIND, E3MG, GMM??] 418 The effects of EU mitigation policies in a post-Kyoto global context will be examined in this 419 work cluster, taking into account the main channels of interaction between the EU and other 420 world regions, namely technology transfer, foreign direct investment, development aid and 421 international trade (i.e. capital flows), all areas where the EU can play an important role. 422
423 In the last decade, a growing consensus has emerged that international trade in permits can 424 reduce the climate protection costs because greenhouse gas emissions are abated at locations 425 with least-costs. Moreover, there is also a consensus that tradable permits are efficient in a 426
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10 globalised and fully integrated world market. At a first glance, this implies that if large 427 emitters do not accept an emission cap, smaller emitters can loose some comparative 428 advantage in international trade. However, most economic models used for climate policy 429 advice only allow for the trade of goods and emission permits, but omit the crucial aspect 430 determining the comparative advantage of countries , trade in capital goods. Within the 431 ADAM project, work cluster M2 is designed to inform relevant stakeholders within the EU 432 about the consequences of climate policy targets on economic growth and comparative 433 advantages under different scenarios. 434
435 One major concern of European climate policy is the comparative advantage of European 436 firms on globalising world markets. It is assumed that if only Europe was committed to 437 emission reductions during a decade or two (without USA and Russia), emission-intensive 438 European firms could loose some of their comparative advantage. It will be clarified whether, 439 and for what firms, it is a realistic assumption for European policy to improve the comparative 440 advantage of its domestic firms by relaxing emission caps or if other more effective policy 441 instruments are available. This analysis will focus on the role of technological spillovers 442 (short-term and long-term) and identify potential linkages between climate policy and trade 443 policy. 444
445 In accordance with carbon leakage effects (pollution havens), ambitious emission caps in 446 Europe could induce a flow of emission-intensive goods (like cars, trucks, etc.) and industrial 447 activities to China and India.
Moreover, used power plants and energy-intensive basic 448 industries could end up being exported even faster from Europe to economies with high 449 growth rates.
Over the next three decades, re-investments in the electricity sector will increase 450 substantially within the OECD, but even more new investments in transformation and in 451 developing countries.
This requires an in-depth analysis of how different emissions reduction 452 scenarios and international trade regimes influence the electricity and basic industrial sector in 453 Europe and in countries like China and India.
It has to be analysed whether there is a potential 454 for Europe to export new highly efficient or carbon capturing and sequestration technologies 455 to these countries (leap-frogging).
This is a new research area analysing the impact of 456 international trade in capital goods (and capital mobility) on climate change issues. 457
458 Most models that have already analysed the impact of emissions trading (and other Kyoto 459 instruments like CDM) on mitigation costs have often completely omitted the impact of emis- 460 sions trading on international capital flows and vice versa. A crucial question is whether 461 emissions trading and trading capital goods are complements and substitutes and how these 462 two trading regimes determine the mitigation costs for Europe and other world regions in the 463 short-term and how they influence adaptation cost in the long-term. These insights are crucial 464 for Europe in defining a position in the second commitment period of Kyoto and developing a 465 position for WTO negotiation on this issue. 466
467 International trade on the one side may reduce the vulnerability of some regions and may 468 increase the vulnerability of other regions. It will depend on the trade pattern in the business- 469 as-usual scenario and on the trade pattern influenced by climate policy. In this research focus, 470 the impact of international trade on European adaptation costs and vulnerability in the longer 471 term will also be analysed, as well as the impact of European climate, trade and development 472 policy on selected world regions such as Asia or Latin America. 473
474 Deliverable D2: blah, blah. [Ottmar et al. to propose] 475
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Work Domain A: Adaptation
Work Cluster A1: Vulnerability assessment
480 Over the past years, a range of impact and adaptation studies have been carried out to assess 481 the potential impacts of and vulnerability to climate change in Europe. All relevant studies 482 carried out within former EU Framework Programmes as well as sub-national, national, 483 regional and sectoral studies will be analysed and synthesised. This European meta-analysis 484 will provide a comprehensive overview of potential impacts of climate change and of 485 opportunities to adapt to these impacts. 486
487 Second, the meta-analysis will provide information that will be the basis for the development 488 of a unified framework that allows for formal interpretations and assessment of vulnerability. 489 This framework will be rooted in systems theory and should capture the most important 490 unifying features of existing formalisations. We will show how the framework relates to the 491 vulnerability studies considered in the meta-analysis, and analyse the practical benefits derived 492 from basing vulnerability assessment on a formal framework. 493
494 Third, the meta-analysis will produce a list of actors (individuals, sectors, institutions, etc.) 495 who are either affected by climate change, in a position to reduce vulnerability, or both. They 496 operate on scales ranging from local to European. Using actor-oriented modelling, the 497 behaviour of these actors will be analysed within a small number of worked examples (linked 498 to work cluster P3). This will provide insights into the process of adaptation, including non- 499 climatic factors that promote and constrain adaptation. 500
501 In parallel with the in-depth actor-oriented modelling, a macro-scale assessment will be 502 carried out of the inter-relationships between vulnerability to climate change and vulnerability 503 to social pressures in the EU, including unemployment, income distribution, poverty and 504 transfer requirements. This assessment will distinguish between different social groups, and 505 result in improved knowledge of adaptive capacity to climate change and how it is determined 506 by social and economic conditions. 507
508 Collectively, these activities, as well as those carried out in work cluster A2, will contribute 509 to the development of a digital atlas of Europe's vulnerability to climate change. It will build 510 on the results of the EU FP5 project ATEAM. Activities in the Adaptation Work Domain will 511 result in two major improvements: a more detailed and realistic assessment of adaptive 512 capacity, and a monetisation of potential impacts, using a consistent economic valuation 513 framework. The digital atlas will enable users to identify hotspots of vulnerability to climate 514 change, and obtain insights into the climatic and non-climatic processes that create this 515 vulnerability. Thus, it will be an important tool to stakeholders faced with the challenge of 516 reducing vulnerability to climate change. 517
518 Deliverable D3: A quantitative assessment, including a digital atlas, of vulnerability to 519 [average??? temperature] climate change in Europe, and proposed options for reducing 520 this vulnerability. 521
Work Cluster A2: Coping with extremes
523 Given escalating losses from weather-related disasters, and the IPCC's predictions of 524 increased intensity and frequency, this Cluster will give special attention to assessing risks and 525 vulnerability to slow- and sudden-onset extreme events, such as floods, landslides, droughts, 526
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12 heat waves, and wind storms.
Based on the medium- and long-term scenarios from Work 527 Domain S, and drawing on existing studies, historical records and expert judgments, this 528 cluster will quantify weather-related extreme risks (likelihood and losses) to humans and 529 economies at the relevant sub-national, national, regional and sectoral scale throughout the EU 530 member states.
This will also be done, selectively and in association with our 3rd Country 531 collaborators, for highly exposed developing countries.
Focusing primarily on macro- 532 economic impacts and vulnerability, the projected risks will take account of changes in land 533 use, capital movements, population and climate.
The risks will be combined with financial 534 coping capacity to quantify the economic vulnerability of the relevant geographical location or 535 sector depending on possibilities to reduce the losses - through structural and non-structural 536 technological paths - and absorb them, through solidarity and insurance instruments.
This 537 will yield a European map of economic vulnerability in the EU and, to some extent, globally, 538 which will complement the vulnerability map of work cluster A1.
Building on cluster A1, 539 more nuanced and detailed assessments of risk and vulnerability to extreme weather, including 540 social, institutional, economic and environmental factors, will be carried out as part of the 541 Policy Assessment Framework worked examples (cluster P3). 542
543 Special emphasis will be placed on identifying innovative technologies [cf.
Eberhard's 544 concerns about technology modeling] (e.g., portable levees), innovative policies (e.g., new 545 forms of humanitarian disaster assistance based on newly emerging financial instruments) and 546 institutions (e.g., public-private, incentive-compatible insurance systems) for reducing and 547 transferring the risks within Europe, and in light of Europe's global responsibilities, in 548 developing countries.
Specifically, we will propose adaptation options that are robust to 549 uncertainties in the assessments, including policy instruments for reducing the losses in a 550 sustainable manner and transferring the risks through new forms of European solidarity (e.g., 551 novel uses of the European catastrophe fund).
This will mean identifying opportunities for 552 mainstreaming disaster risk management within the EU's existing directives and policies, as 553 well as those of its member states.
This will also mean examining "proactive" loss-reduction 554 and financing measures for restructuring Europe's current (post-disaster) role in providing 555 development and humanitarian assistance, as well as the EU's possible role in restructuring 556 climate adaptation funds, for example, as part of the Global Environment Facility.
The policy 557 options will serve as input to the Policy Assessment Framework (cluster P1). 558
559 Deliverable D4: A quantitative assessment of Europe's economic vulnerability to extreme 560 weather events, and proposed options for reducing this vulnerability by decreasing and 561 sharing disaster losses. 562
Work Domain P: Policy Options Appraisal
566 Work Cluster P1: Development of a policy-options appraisal framework 567 [Text still too long] A central component of ADAM will be the development of an innovative 568 Policy-options Appraisal Framework (PAF). The PAF will be both a major deliverable of the 569 project and the key integrating mechanism for providing policy-relevant outputs from the 570
project. The PAF will have two main innovative components
572 • An integrated appraisal framework bringing together quantitative and qualitative 573 components, enabling a multi-criteria appraisal of policy options working independently 574 and in combination with other policies. The direct and indirect impacts of policies will be 575 analyzed. The framework will also be used both to assess the contribution of sectoral 576
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13 policies to existing macro-level climate policy targets and, in a prospective, normative way, 577 to appraise alternative policies in the longer-term. 578 • Structured interaction between analysts and stakeholders (including citizens) in a 579 process of deliberative appraisal. Building on procedures already developed in 580 environmental policy analysis and integrated assessment, the appraisal framework will 581 build-in an interactive approach from the outset, linking knowledgeable and interested 582 parties in the analytical work of the project. 583
584 Work cluster P1 will thus: a) iteratively develop the PAF through a structured interaction with 585 identified end-users of the policy option appraisals; b) apply the PAF through work clusters 586 P2 and P3 and using analysis provided by the Mitigation and Adaptation Work Domains; 587 and c) in support of the policy-options appraisals in P2 and P3, perform meta-analysis of the 588 academic literature and results from work carried out in ADAM. Deliberative appraisal will 589 use both quantitative economic and environmental modelling, together with qualitative 590 analysis produced by the other work clusters within the ADAM project. 591
592 Once a set of policy options has been defined, the framework will involve applying a multi- 593 criteria appraisal (MCA) to a broad range of analyses produced by other work clusters and 594
covering
596 • Environmental integrity - use of mainly quantitative models to assess: a) emissions 597 reductions; b) contribution to adaptation goals; c) other environmental benefits (or 598 damages) of climate policy (such as reduced air pollution or environmental impacts of bio- 599 fuels production). 600 • Costs and valuations - use of economic models to produce a range of cost estimates 601 and cost distributions at global and intra-EU spatial scales, including Cost-effectiveness, 602 Cost-Benefit Analysis and valuation of externalities. 603 • Political feasibility - analysis of the political feasibility of a policy option, drawing 604 upon a range of analysis including global context, national costs and relative national costs, 605 distribution of costs domestically, flexibility, and public perception and acceptability. 606 • Equity, Legitimacy, Efficiency - analysis of the equity, legitimacy and efficiency issues 607 surrounding the policy option. 608
609 For each criterion, the appraisal may be conducted by either defining a quantitative target/s or, 610 where appropriate, by defining looser principles.
Comparative appraisal of different policy 611 options can also be conducted (without necessarily requiring targets or principles to be 612 defined).
Targets can be developed based upon stated EU policy goals or they can be defined 613 through deliberative exercises with both experts and lay people.
Both approaches will be 614 employed in ADAM.
The criteria used may also be expanded/reduced/changed in different 615 deliberative exercises.
An MCA will then be conducted by gathering the relevant analysis and 616 information for each of the criterion, together with the corresponding set of targets/principles 617 and, in some cases, a set of weightings for combining criteria.
The aim, however, will be to 618 produce appraisals in the sense of gaining insights into, and comparison and exploration of, 619 the implications of various policy options, rather than a formal assessment in the technocratic 620 sense. 621
622 Deliverable D5: A novel policy options appraisal framework which uses both formal 623 modelling and deliberative processes to illuminate policy options according to multiple 624 criteria. 625
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Work Cluster P2: Policy mapping and appraisal
627 [can we state any links to the M Domain?] Based on the PAF developed in work cluster P1, 628 work cluster P2 will investigate existing climate policies and governance systems in the 629 European Union in the global context.
The cluster will inventorise European policies relevant 630 to climate change adaptation and mitigation.
We would aim to include measures currently 631 recognised as climate policies, but include also policies in other sectors including agriculture, 632 trade and environmental protection.
Policy mapping will identify and analyse potential 633 interactions (negative and positive) between EU policies and instruments, and between EU 634 policies and international policies (including within international climate agreements and the 635 world trade regime).
The aim of the appraisal will be to determine whether current EU policy 636 objectives can be achieved, to establish where major shortfalls are likely, and to assess (in a 637 link with work clusters A1 and A2) how EU vulnerability and resilience will be influenced as 638 a result.
Drawing on these results, work cluster P3 will investigate for selected examples 639 how identified weaknesses and vulnerabilities (and unexploited opportunities) may be handled 640 over the longer term, through an analysis of alternative strategies. 641
642 To fulfil these objectives, the research team will: (1) create a database (qualitative and 643 quantitative) of mitigation and adaptation policies and governance systems in the European 644 Union;1 (2) conduct a series of case studies in a representative sample of member states to 645 assess the effects of EU policies, taking into account both mitigation and adaptation and their 646 interlinkages; (3) conduct a special case study focusing on the EU-internal and external effects 647 of the European emissions trading scheme; (4) attempt to explain variation in effectiveness 648 across countries and across policies, to assess the overall effectiveness of European mitigation 649 and adaptation governance, and to identify problems and stumbling blocks that impede 650 effective climate governance in Europe; (5) analyse possible governance challenges under 651 specific changed future environmental and political conditions (linked to the scenarios from 652 work cluster S), including results from other ADAM work clusters; and (6) develop detailed 653 recommendations to European decision-makers at all levels on possible reforms of policies 654 and of policy-making systems in the short-term [what is meant by short-term here?]. 655
656 Deliverable D6: An appraisal of EU's current climate policy trajectory and the feasibility 657 and cost effectiveness of this trajectory in meeting emerging adaptation objectives and 658 existing mitigation goals. 659
660 Work Cluster P3: Portfolio development and appraisal through worked examples 661 This work cluster will apply the ADAM PAF (cluster P1) to four'worked examples'to show 662 how a portfolio of novel and tangible adaptation and/or mitigation policy options might be 663 applied within Europe or globally, and what their consequences might be.
Each example of a 664 regional, sectoral or policy domain will be selected using the following criteria: where 665 business-as-usual climate policies will not deliver strategic objectives (cf. cluster P2); where 666 there is a strong European resonance, even if the analysis is not restricted solely to Europe; 667 where there is scope for innovative policy intervention related both to adaptation and 668 mitigation, whether or not these policies are synergistic or conflicting; not necessarily 669 constrained to existing EU policy sectors; where there is a match with the skills profile and 670 expertise of the ADAM Consortium. 671
672 The final choice of examples will be crucial to the success and relevance of ADAM and a final 673 selection will not be made until Stage 2 of the proposal. This selection would be made in 674
1 This database would be used by other researchers in the consortium, and would be a project output.
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15 association with officers in DG Research, DG Environment and others DGs as appropriate. 675 We believe that one worked example should certainly relate to the design and implementation 676 of a post-2012 global climate regime. Here, we would develop a portfolio of global design 677 principles (e.g. budern-sharing, blah, blah, ) and EU policy options (e.g. compensation 678 measures, blah, blah ) which could deliver a 2100 global climate consistent with Article 2 of 679 the UNFCCC and consistent with other international goals, treaties and conventions (e.g. 680 Millennium Development Goals, WTO, Biodiversity and Desertification Conventions). These 681 options would be such to an options appraisal using the ADAM PAF. 682
683 A short-list of candidate topics for the other three examples is suggested to illustrate our 684
thinking (although we cannot elaborate them in Stage 1)
686 • transition to a hydrogen energy economy; 687 • the implications of new EU climate policies for a selected member state (e.g. for a 688 newly acceded member state); 689 • re-designing European agriculture; 690 • international development assistance; 691 • forestry and biodiversity; 692 • water resource management in southern Europe; 693 • managing extreme weather events and impacts. 694
695 The idea is deliberately not [why? this sounds rather timid] to be comprehensive in our 696 appraisal of long-term climate policy options for Europe, but to demonstrate the value of our 697 policy appraisal framework in a small number of high profile and high impact examples. The 698 development of the portfolio of innovative policy options for each example will draw heavily 699 upon the work in the Adaptation and Mitigation Domains, but will be further co-produced 700 with pertinent European (and global) stakeholders. 701
702 Deliverable D7: An appraisal of a range of new (i.e., beyond business-as-usual) 703 mitigation and adaptation policy options as applied to four worked examples spanning a 704 range of scales and sectors, including post-2012 global climate regimes. 705
Implementation plan
709 The ADAM Consortium consists of 19 partner institutions from eligible European countries, 710 together with three institutions in 3rd Countries with whom we will develop a strategic alliance 711 to deliver on the ADAM objectives. We also have identified a number of reserve partners, 712 whom are not formally part of the Consortium in this Stage 1 proposal, but whom may be able 713 to offer relevant skills as our ideas , in particular the four worked examples in cluster P3 - are 714 further developed in a Stage 2 proposal. 715
716 The ADAM Partnership , Stage 1 European Partners [please check] 717
Partner
Participant Organisation Name
Country
Representative(s)
01 UEA
University of East Anglia and Tyndall Centre
UK
M.Hulme; A.Haxeltine
02 PIK
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Germany
O.Edenhofer; R.Klein
03 IVM
Institute for Environmental Studies, Free University of
Amsterdam
Netherlands
F.Berkhout; F.Bierman
04 CICERO
Centre for International Climate and Environmental
Norway
K.O'Brien;
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Research - Oslo
G.Eskelund
05 WUR
Wageningen University and Research Centre
Netherlands
P.Kabat; S.Werners
06 IIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Austria
J.Bayer
07 PSI
Paul Scherrer Institute
Switzerland
A.Wokaun; L.Barreto
08 LUND
Centre for Environmental Studies, Lund University
Sweden
L.Olsson
09 ICIS
International Centre for Integrative Studies, University of
Maastricht
Netherlands
P.Martens; J.Rotmans
10 IEST
Institute of Environmental Science and Technology,
University of Barcelona
Spain
D.Tabara
11 PAS
Research Centre of Agricultural and Forest Environment,
Polish Academy of Sciences
Poland
Z.Kundewicz
12 RIVM
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Netherlands
M.Berk; T.Kram 13 Fh-ISI
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research
Germany
E.Jochem
14 CAM
Department of Applied Economics, University of
Cambridge
UK
T.Barker; J.Köhler
15 JRC
European Joint Research Centre, ISPRA
EU
F.Raes
16 DISAT
Department of Agronomy and Land Management,
University of Florence
Italy
M.Bindi
17 SEI
Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford
UK
T.Downing
18 IEPE
IEPE, Université Pierre Mendès France, Grenoble
France
P.Criqui
19 HAS
Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Hungary
Someone
The ADAM Partnership , Stage 2 Candidate European Partners
Partner
Participant Organisation Name
Country
Representative(s)
A 01 CAS
Chinese Academy of Sciences, IAP/START
China
C.Fu
A 02 TERI
Tata Energy Research Institute, New Delhi
India
L.Srivastava
A 03 GCRI
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Batelle PNL
Washington DC and University of Maryland
USA
J.Edmonds; R.Moss
The ADAM Partnership , Stage 1 3rd Country Collaborators
Partner
Participant Organisation Name
Country
Representative(s)
C 01 IERSD
Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable
Development, National Observatory of Athens
Greece
D.P.Lalas
C 02 FEI
Finnish Environment Institute
Finland
T.Carter
C 03 LSHTM
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
UK
S.Kovats
C 04 HIIE
Hamburg Institute for International Economics
Germany
A.Michaelowa
C 05 JR
Joanneum Research, Graz
Austria
B.Schlamadinger
C 06 LJU
Agronomy Department, University of Ljubljana
Slovenia
L.Kajfez-Bogataj
725 The composition of the ADAM Consortium reflects most importantly the inter-disciplinary 726 skills and climate change research experience that are needed to advance the ability of science 727 to underpin public policy in relation to climate change. We therefore have partners which 728 balance social science, natural science, economics and engineering disciplines and partners 729 who have played leading roles in the climate change science-policy interface within their own 730 countries. A number of the ADAM partners have long experience of working together on 731 European and global scale research projects, but we have also included a number of partners 732 who bring new and specific skills which will be needed to deliver the ADAM objectives. 733
734 The senior partners in the ADAM Consortium have considerable experience in managing and 735 delivering European-scale research projects. IVM are co-ordinating the EFEIA-2 Concerted 736 Action; PIK co-ordinated the ATEAM project; ICIS and UEA are jointly running the 737 MATISSE Integrated Project; WUR etc. [other examples please]. We are also experienced at 738 working at the science-policy interface, either with our own national climate policy 739
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17 communities (e.g. UEA in the UK; RIVM in the Netherlands; examples etc.), but also at a 740 European scale (e.g. RIVM with the European Environment Agency; JRC, IEPE , others? - 741 with the European Commission). 742
743 The successful management of ADAM will be a key element in delivering our objectives.
We 744 envisage a number of different levels and functions of the management structure.
The lead 745 partner , Tyndall Centre at UEA , has successfully managed a large, inter-disciplinary multi- 746 site UK consortium over the last five years (and will continue to do so for 2005-2010) and will 747 bring this management experience to the ADAM Consortium.
We propose the following 748 management functions which will be fully elaborated in our Stage 2 proposal: a Project Co- 749 ordinator (the lead scientist); a Project Manager (full-time); a Financial Manager (part-time); a 750 Scientific Core Group (comprising work cluster leaders); an ADAM Council (representatives 751 from all partners); the ADAM Assembly (all researchers working within ADAM; to meet at 752 least annually); a Stakeholder Consultation Group (drawn from policy, business and civil 753 society organisations).
We will invest in a professional knowledge management platform to 754 facilitate information exchange and structured dialogue and exploit new Access Grid 755 technologies for virtual interactions. 756
757 The ADAM work plan will be broken down into two equal 18-month phases: [still need to 758 insert the information about indicative resource allocation by cluster and by partner]. 759
760 Phase 1: The scenarios work (Domain S) will be completed within the first six months of the 761 project and will provide one of the integrating frameworks for the duration of ADAM. Work 762 cluster P1 will also complete its work during this phase (Deliverable D3), establishing the 763 policy options appraisal framework for use in P2 and P3. Work cluster P2 will commence 764 work and will have completed the EU policy mapping exercise. Work clusters M1, M2, A1 765 and A2 will all commence work during this Phase, establishing baseline data, improving 766 models and establishing methodologies. Preparatory work on the four worked examples (P3) 767 will be completed. . 768
769 Phase 2: Work clusters M1 and M2 will complete early in this phase the improvements to 770 economic models (Deliverable D1).
Work cluster P2 will complete its work (Deliverable 771 D4) by using the options appraisal framework to evaluate existing and evolving EU climate 772 policies.
Work cluster A1 will complete a quantitative vulnerability assessment for Europe 773 (Deliverable D2).
Work cluster P3, in association with other clusters, will have established 774 the portfolios of policy options to be appraised under each worked example.
In association 775 with clusters M1, M2, A1, and A2, work cluster P3 will use the options appraisal framework 776 to complete the four worked examples by the end of the ADAM project (Deliverable D5). 777 Six-monthly science-policy workshops will be organised throughout both phases and a final 778 ADAM science-policy conference will be organised in Brussels. 779
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